Long Hill Township School District Student Enrollment Expected to Decline Next Year

Decline Will Mark Third Year in a Row Enrollment Has Declined

Five-Year Average Growth Rate Hits Negative Numbers

Had the Public Known the Facts, the Budget Would Have Been Defeated!

Long Hill Township- November 28, 2007 -The average five-year growth rate in student enrollment for the Long Hill Township K – 8 school district has finally hit the negative numbers at -0.6%. There is no anticipated change in this declining trend in the foreseeable future.

According to Board Secretary John Esposito, the Long Hill Township K – 8 schools had a decline of 27 students from October 2006 to October 2007. The apparent disparity between the reported number and the decline of 36 students reported previously, from the 2006 – 2007 school year to the 2007 – 2008 school year, is the result of when the measure was taken; year-to-year in October or June 2007 to September 2007. 

The reason given for this decline at the November 26 board meeting is that more students graduated from eighth grade than entered kindergarten. This has been one of the smallest kindergarten classes in recent years. However, the board knew this back in February when they began pitching the school budget to voters.

The budget presentations made to the public projected an increase in student enrollment for the 2007 - 2008 school year. The numbers were generated using the ‘five year average growth rate” (click here for the PowerPoint presentation). However, the board was well aware of the number of students who would be attending kindergarten in September 2007 because kindergarten registration was on January 9 and 16 2007. They also knew the number of students who would be graduating from the 8^th grade in June 2007.

Instead of using the real numbers, as any “prudent person” would, they decided to average the last five years growth rates and project the number of students who would be enrolled in September 2007 using the average. The average projected student enrollment would increase by 12 students; the real numbers (kindergarten enrollment – graduating 8^th graders) showed a decline of over 30 students!

In addition to this phony enrollment projection, they omitted many relevant facts. Had the public known these facts, the budget would have been defeated. In particular, the budget for books was cut by 10% while the school superintendent’s salary would increase by over 16 percent. The parents would have never passed this budget had they known.

The projected enrollment presented to the public during the budget presentations early this year was for an increase in enrollment of 12 students, or 1.1% over the last school year.  The large decline in actual student enrollment was highly predictable.

It is understandable that the public believed the numbers presented back in February and March of this year during those budget presentations. There should have been no surprise on the part of the school board or the administration when the actual numbers didn’t reflect the projected numbers presented to the public during the budget presentations.

When the Observer attempted to bring out this point during a budget presentation, board member Bruce Meringolo put an abrupt end to this line of questioning, stating that he knew where this (line of questioning) was going. Mr. Meringolo’s concern was apparently well founded. The board did not want the public to know the obvious truth.

Unless there is a huge increase in the number of students enrolling in kindergarten this coming January, the Observer anticipates another large decline. It is anticipated that all 107 students in the eighth grade will graduate. Based on declining home sales regionally, steady birth rates, and an anticipated huge increase in taxes this year (making home ownership in Long Hill township even less desirable) it is highly likely that there will be an even larger decline when the numbers come out next September and October.

If kindergarten enrollment remains at this year’s rate and the October to October decline in students remains the same, the school system will lose another 20 students. (An extremely conservative projection given that the actual June to September decline was 36 students according to the administration.) Enrollment is projected to decline next year to a level below the 2001 level.

The table below details the actual student enrollment (taken from the administration's own reports to the State Department of Education) and the Observer's projected 2008 numbers.

*Based on most conservative case

**Based on anticipated actual case